PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 19, 2024 BY PROMETHEUS PRESS!
Foreword by Neil deGrasse Tyson
An incisive summary of where we are, how we got here, and where we are going in a rapidly-evolving technological world from the broad perspective of an astrophysicist.
The Path to Singularity: A Book Review by Bob Morris
November 25, 2024
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As I began to read this book, I was again reminded of Vernon Vinge's essay, "The Coming of Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era" (1993), in which he suggests that "the acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur)." More recently, in The Singularity Is Near (2005), Ray Kurzweil predicts that "convergent, exponential technological trends" are "leading to a transition that would be 'utterly transformative' for humanity." I was reminded of that prediction as I began to read the sequel, The Singularity Is Nearer, in which Kurzweil explains how and why humanity's "Mellenia-long march toward the Singularity has become a sprint. In the introduction to The Singularity Is Near, I wrote that we were then 'in the early stages of this transition.' Now we are entering its culmination. That book was about glimpsing a distant horizon — this one is about the last miles along the path to reach it."
All of this material is relevant to the remarks that follow as I attempt to explain why I think so highly of J. Craig Wheeler and his wide and deep experience. He has much of value to share about various "revolutionary' technologies that have made the business world today more volatile, more uncertain, more complex, and more ambiguous than at any prior time that I can recall. In the first chapter, Wheeler observes that, "In the past, humans have always, with some turmoil, adapted to new technologies. Technology is now racing ahead under its own momentum. Humans and human organizations tend to lag. Things are currently changing so rapidly that we may not be able to adapt. This is a qualitatively new phase in human existence. "The biggest wave can start as a gentle swell in mid-ocean. Near shore, the wave crests and breaks. Picture a surfer on a gigantic wave. With the right timing and balance, the surfer can ride the wave and stay on top. The alternative is being tumbled within the surging surf or in the worst case pounded onto a coral reef. As we try to ride our technological wave, the tumbling may be unavoidable. We must avoid slamming into the reef." In or near the central business district in most major cities, there is a farmer's market at which some of the vendors — at least until COVID-19 — offered slices of fresh fruit as samples of their wares. In that same spirit, I now offer a selection of brief excerpts from The Path to Singularity in order to suggest the thrust and flavor of Wheeler's insights.
o "All of these people [Kurzweil, Peter Thiel, Bill Joy, Nick Bostrom, Max Tesgmark, et al], whether utopian or dystopian, agree that the extreme case of self-replicating, superintelligent machines loose in the natural environment would be exceedingly dangerous, yet we are moving in that direction." "Machines will evolve but so will we. We will be able to tinker with our genes, our bodies, our brains. Perhaps we will become superhuman and compete with superintelligent machines. Perhaps we will merge with our machines." (Pages 25-26) Or perhaps we will collaborate with one superintelligent machine when competing with another superintelligent machine.
o "The developments in AI will thus be exponential and complex. Important questions are whether or when the changes driven by the Exponential growth of AI will become so rapid that society and individual people cannot keep up. We will return to that issue in subsequent chapters." (50) Other important questions will address the successes and failures of human/machine collaboration in terms of strategy, execution, and resources. What lessons have been learned?
o "The history of life on the planet and the great vista of time before us yields one firm prediction for the future of humanity. A million years from now, a billion years from now, Homo sapiens will not exist. We might die off, we might evolve, but we will not be as we currently are. The prediction is rooted in the immutable laws of genetics. On geological astronomical time scales, we will drift and change; yet that natural drift — as powerful as it has been in history — is probably now irrelevant as we will explore in more depth in Chapter 10." (153) Albert Einstein once suggested that the most important questions never change but answers "change every year." What do you think?
o "We are faced with a future of increased connectivity that will deeply alter society and how people function within it. Humans have advanced over other species because of their ability to cooperate and learn from one another in ever more sophisticated and effective ways. As we get more connected, we will amplify our distributed intelligence and the intelligence of groups, either people or AI, or a merging of the two in combination."
Here's a question to ponder: What can humans do in collaboration with AI that AI alone cannot…and will never be able to?
Here is one of J. Craig Wheeler's key concluding points: "It is difficult to deal with problems that have not yet transpired but are coming ferociously fast. It is easy to point out possibilities that have been speculated upon but have not come to pass and hence to dismiss those possibilities. That is too facile a way out.
"For every 'That hasn't happened,' there is a 'yet.'"
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Here are two of my suggestions while you are reading The Path to Singularity: First, highlight key passages. Also, perhaps in a notebook kept near-at-hand (e.g. Apica Premium C.D. Notebook A5), record your comments, questions, and action steps (preferably with deadlines). These two simple tactics — highlighting and documenting — will expedite frequent reviews of key material later.